ARHIV DRUŽBOSLOVNIH PODATKOV

The focus of the training workshop will be on the impact of world migration on European countries’ population composition and distribution. The projection methods quantify the demographic consequences of (a) international migration by ethnicity and (b) differential levels and patterns of fertility and mortality by ethnicity. The workshop will address the demographic consequences in terms of (a) the size, composition and spatial distribution of the population, and (b) the broader issue of the likely life course of members of the evolving population. Multistate projection (cohort component) models are applied to determine population change and the differences between successive generations. A multistate microsimulation model that is consistent with the multistate cohort component model will be used to determine the life paths of members of the evolving population and to prepare probabilistic projections. The microsimulation model may also be extended to include personal attributes that cannot be included in the macro-simulation (projection) model.

Particular attention will be paid to the estimation of demographic parameters from incomplete data. The workshop is closely related to the subject of the seminar "Multi-attribute analysis and projection of ethnic populations" and the seminar “Estimation and projection of international migration”. The organization of these activities will be coordinated.

The workshop takes 7 - 9 days and will be organized at the University of Leeds. Instructors will be Phil Rees (University of Leeds), Tom Wilson (Department of Planning, New South Wales, Australia; visiting University of Leeds) and Frans Willekens (NIDI) with assistance from Paul Norman, Peter Boden and Pia Wohland (University of Leeds). Part A of the Summer School (4 - 5 days) cover multistate projection models with applications and methods of estimating projection inputs from data. Part B (3 days) cover microsimulation. The microsimulation starts from the parameters of the projection model. Part A will be organized by the University of Leeds and Part B by Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute.

Organizers:
Phil Rees: +44 113 34 33341, email p.h.rees@leeds.ac.uk
Frans Willekens: +31 70 3565226 (secr) +31 70 3565228 (direct), email willekens@nidi.nl